Election latest: Labour to win landslide and Farage to become MP for first time, poll projects (2024)

Our first guest is Labour's shadow equalities secretary Anneliese Dodds, who tells Sophy Ridge the country needs a "clear plan" to tackle migration.

She says the Conservatives have not delivered the necessary changes and Labour has a clear plan in relation to stopping small boats, adding: "We cannot continue with a situation where criminal gangs are operating with impunity. Labour set out that plan to stop those criminal gangs, to stop that vile trade.

"But we also need to have a clear plan on migration for work, where we've seen such a huge rise under the Conservatives, again with no plan. But Labour has a plan to ensure that we can deal with that too."

Ms Dodds was also challenged on polling showing 52% of voters saying they do not believe Labour is being honest on migration.

She told Sophy she can see why people are "cynical about the power of politics" after hearing so many promises by the government.

She says it is "a challenge for all politicians" and says Labour is "determined to turn our country around, to be really upfront with people about where there are challenges".

As Sophy Ridge outlined in the previous post, immigration is front of mind for many voters heading to the polls on 4 July.

More people in the UK think immigration has a negative impact on society compared to a positive one, according to a new survey carried out by YouGov exclusively for Sky News.

Across the UK, 43% of people asked thought that immigration has a negative impact on British society, compared to 35% who said it has a positive impact.

Our online campaign correspondent Tom Cheshire has been diving into the data behind what is one of the biggest issues at this election:

Hundreds of people gathered on the shoreline in France, clambering on to dinghies, some with young babies.

Such scenes are the perfect illustration of the immigration challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

But there's another thing that illustrates the scale of the challenge.

Sky News polling by YouGov reveals a deep distrust in all parties.

52% of people said they think Labour aren't telling the truth about what they think of immigration – and 49% think the same of the Conservatives.

And they don't think either party will sort it out.

People told us they think immigration would increase under both a Labour government and a Conservative one - even though their official plans are to reduce it.

People just don't believe they’ll make good on their promises.

And that deep-seated distrust, that cynicism, is the real challenge facing whoever wins the next election.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgeis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

After a relatively quiet day, Sophy will be joined by Labour Party chairAnneliese Doddsand former Conservative MPPhilip Dunne.

And on Sophy's panel are:

• Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour;
• Nimco Ali, former government adviser.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgefrom Monday to Thursday on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

After a relatively quiet day, Sophy will be joined by Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds and former Conservative MP Philip Dunne.

And on Sophy's panel are:

• Jim Murphy, former leader of Scottish Labour;
• Nimco Ali, former government adviser.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

A new poll puts Labour on course to win more than 450 seats and the biggest majority of any post-war government, with the Tories set to see their worst electoral defeat in history (see previous post).

The Ipsos poll predicted the Conservatives would win just 115 seats, meaning several senior Tory figures would lose their seats.

Let's have a look at who they are and what their previous majority in their constituencies was.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire since 2005. He won the seat with 27,394 votes in 2019, a majority of 52.6%.

He is standing against Jack Aaron for Reform UK, Sarah Butcher for the Greens, Andrew Lewin for Labour and John Munro for the Liberal Democrats.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the leader of the House of Commons and has been the MP for Portsmouth North since 2010.

Ms Mordaunt, who has twice run for the Tory party leadership, held the seat with 61.4% of the vote in 2019, securing 28,172 votes.

She will face Simon Dodd from the Liberal Democrats, Amanda Martin from Labour, Stuart Robinson from the Greens and Melvyn Todd from Reform UK.

Gillian Keegan

The education secretary has been MP for Chichester in West Sussex since 2017 and won 35,402 votes in 2019 (57.8%).

On 4 July she will go up against the Liberal Democrats' Jess Brown-Fuller, Labour's Tom Collinge, Reform UK's Teresa De Santis, independent Andrew Emerson and the Greens' Tim Young.

Johnny Mercer

Johnny Mercer, the veterans affairs minister, has been MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2015.

He held the seat with 26,831 votes or 60.7% in 2019, and is standing against Shaun Hooper from Reform UK, Sarah Martin from the Liberal Democrats, Georgia Nelson from the Greens and Fred Thomas from Labour.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has been the MP for North East Somerset since 2010 and has previously served as the leader of the House of Commons and minister for Brexit opportunities.

He garnered 28,360 votes (50.4%) in 2019.

The constituency will be reformed into North East Somerset and Hanham for the general election, where Sir Jacob will contest the seat against Barmy Brunch from the Monster Raving Loony Party, Edmund Cannon from the Greens, independent Nicholas Hales, Reform UK's Paul MacDonnell, Dan Norris from Labour and Dine Romero from the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservative Party is heading for its worst electoral defeat in history and Nigel Farage is set to become an MP for the first time, according to a new poll of almost 20,000 people.

The Ipsos poll estimates Labour could win 453 seats, while the Conservatives would take just 115, giving Sir Keir Starmer's party a 256-seat majority.

The result could be even worse for the Tories, with Ipsos estimating a lower range of just 99 seats.

It would mean senior Tory figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a close battle in his Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, while the poll has cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch clinging on.

The model also suggested Nigel Farage will win Clacton from the Tories, overturning the incumbent party's huge majority there.

Meanwhile, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is standing as an independent, is predicted to lose the Islington North constituency he has represented since 1983 to Labour.

The projection suggests the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, the Greens three and Reform UK could also take three seats.

A Survation poll on Monday used a similar technique to estimate a similarly massive Labour majority.

What is an MRP poll?

An MRP poll - which stands formultilevel regression and post-stratification - draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

Such polls first ask a large representative sample how they will vote, then use that information combined with data about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies to estimate how people will vote across the country.

Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

Former Dragons' Den investor Theo Paphitis has backed Labour and said the party would end the "chaos" of the Tory era.

The entrepreneur joined Sir Keir Starmer on the campaign trail earlier (see 12.45pm post).

Mr Paphitis said Labour's manifesto was "in line with my ambitions of having a stable business environment and the end of the chaos that we've had to live through over the last eight to nine years at least".

Sir Keir and Mr Paphitis - who owns chains Ryman Stationary, Robert Dyas and Boux Avenue - tried their hand at making jewellery during a campaign event in Basingstoke.

'I haven't changed - the Tories have'

Mr Paphitis told the BBC he had lost faith in the Conservatives.

"Stability for business, growth, and wealth creation used to form part of their agenda," he said.

"Well, they've forgotten it, it now that very much sits in the Labour Party.

"That's why I'm here, I haven't changed, they've gone away from me."

It's 5pm and here is your evening rundown.

First, an important reminder that today is the deadline to register to vote. We have put together a handy guide if you still need to sort it out and make sure you can go to the polls on 4 July - find it here.

Here are the key points from today's election news...

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are in north Devon, where Mr Sunak and Lord Cameron struggled to feed a flock of sheep;
  
• The prime minister took questions from farmers and went on to say it has been "a real privilege" to understand the contribution they make to society, though the Lib Dems said his charm offensive was "too little too late" as they eye up traditional Tory strongholds in the region;
• Meanwhile, despite him representing a major threat to Mr Sunak and the Tories, a poll has found more than half of the public thinkNigel Faragewould make a bad prime minister.
  

• Sir Keir Starmer is in Hampshire, where he and the Labour Party are continuing their week focused on the economy - today, sharing their plan for the British high street;
• The Labour leader gave a campaign speech at a cricket ground in Reading where he said he was hoping for a "summer of change", and was endorsed by former Dragon's Den star Theo Paphitis;
• Earlier, Sir Keir refused to rule out raising council tax for "working people" - and committed to a public inquiry on the Nottingham attacks;
• He also said only parents with children on a special educational needs (SEN) plan will be exempt from paying VAT on private school fees;

• In Scotland, Anas Sarwarhas today launched Scottish Labour's manifesto, with a focus on improving the future for young people in the country;
• He also confirmed that Scottish Labour is against the two-child benefit cap, despite there being no plans to scrap the measure if Labour wins the keys to Downing Street.
• Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey was in Eastleigh, where he discussed sewage - and claimed the Tories would "fail in opposition" just as he says they have in government;
• And on a day of special coverage of the migration crisis here on Sky News, an exclusive poll suggests more Britons think immigration has had a negative impact on society than positive.

Here are some other stories you might find interesting:

Stick with us for all the latest throughout the evening - including our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub, which will be live on Sky News from 7pm with ourpolitics presenterSophy Ridge.

She'll be speaking to Anneliese Dodds, Labour's party chair and shadow women and equalities secretary, and Philip Dunne, the former Conservative MP for Ludlow who is standing down at this election.

More than half of the public thinks Reform UK leader Nigel Farage would make a bad or terrible prime minister, according to a poll.

A day after Mr Farage unveiled the Reform manifesto, which he billed as the party's "contract" with voters, YouGov found 55% of Britons thought he would make a bad (12%) or terrible (43%) PM.

Only 27% thought he would make a great (9%) or good (18%) leader.

Tory voters more sympathetic to idea

Those who voted Labour and Lib Dem in 2019 were most likely to think he would make a terrible prime minister, with 70% and 72% respectively giving that answer.

However, 2019 Tory voters were more split on the issue, with 18% saying he would make a great prime minister, 31% saying he would make a good one, 12% saying bad and 22% answering terrible.

But overall, nearly two-thirds of Brits (65%) said they did not believe it very likely Mr Farage would be prime minister in the next 10 years.

It comes after the Reform leader said he had real ambitions to become prime minister after a 2029 general election, should his party establish itself in parliament after the vote on 4 July.