Election latest: Tories 'already vying to take over from Sunak if he loses' - but the public's favourite isn't even in the party (2024)

Reform UK and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in a new poll of Welsh voters with each party taking 18% of the share.

But both trail Labour, which is far ahead on 45%, according to the survey by Redfield & Wilton.

The poll of 960 Welsh voters put Plaid Cymru on 11%, Liberal Democrats on 5% and Greens on 4%.

Only 39% of those who voted for the Conservatives in Wales in 2019 willvote Conservative again, the poll showed - with 32% of past Conservative voters saying they would defect to Reform UK.

It comes after the latest YouGov poll of UK voters for Sky News showed Reform had pulled to within two points of the Conservatives.

Sky News has been tracking locations visited by party leaders in the first two weeks of the general election campaign to decipher what their choices tell us about the parties' election strategies.

Of the 650 seats, 54 have now been visited during the campaign by Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer or Ed Davey.

The South East seems to be garnering the most attention with 12 visits overall - highlighting the importance of the region for all of the English parties.

Read more from Sky News elections analyst Dr Hannah Bunting and data journalist Joely Santa Cruz here:

Politicians "should level with the public" and admit voters face higher taxes whoever wins the election, a thinktank says.

The Resolution Foundation, an independent thinktank focused on improving living standards for people on low to middle incomes,has published a paper looking at planned and proposed tax rises.

Households will see their tax bill rise by around £800, according to its analysis, withalready agreed tax rises totalling £23bn a year by 2028/29. That includes a 5p rise in fuel duty due in spring 2025.

Stamp duty currently kicks in on house sales over £250,000 but this threshold will fall to £125,000 from March 2025, so the levy will apply to cheaper - and likely more - purchases. (Although the Tories have said they will axe stamp duty on homes up to £425,000 for first-time buyers - see our 9.22am post for more.)

The Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Business Rates Relief Scheme will end at the same time.

The thinktank's economists have described the timing as a "tax sandwich" which will begin to bite after the election.

"Politicians should level with the public, and admit that taxes are already set to rise whoever wins the election, even if it's less entertaining than the usual election fodder of secret bombshells and debatable dossiers,"Adam Corlett, Resolution Foundation principal economist, said.

First-time buyers will not have to pay stamp duty on homes up to £425,000 under a new commitment from the Tories.

The manifesto pledge builds on a proposal from former prime minister Liz Truss's Growth Commission.

What is stamp duty?

Stamp duty is a land tax people pay when buying a residential property.

It currently applies to sales over £250,000. You pay 5% on the portion of the property price from £250,000 to £925,000, and 10% of the portion from £925,000 to £1.5m.

There's a 12% tax on anything over £1.5m.

The proposed change is projected to impact 200,000 households every year.

Will it be a Cruel Summer for British politicians? And will warring parties listen when Taylor sings You Need To Calm Down?

Arts and entertainment correspondent Katie Spencer was at the first stop on Taylor Swift's Eras tour in Edinburgh last night.

She spoke to fans hopeful the election would bring about change - and that Ed Davey would appear on stage to do some gymnastics with Taylor.

Nigel Farage is the people's pick to take over from Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservatives if Labour wins the election, according to a new poll.

The poll of 2,000 people showed 19% think Mr Farage should take over from Mr Sunak.

The poll offered six other names - Penny Mordaunt (15%), James Cleverly (6%), Kemi Badenoch (5%), Suella Braverman (4%), Priti Patel (2%) and Robert Jenrick (1%).

However, the majority of those surveyed in the poll for The Independent were stumped as to who should take the Tories' top job - 48% said they did not know who should replace Mr Sunak.

While Mr Farage topped the poll, the chances of him taking over Conservative leadership are slim to none.

He left the party in 1992 and has said the country has been "betrayed" by the Tories.

After confirming he would stand for Reform in the general election earlier this week, he told the BBC there were "no circ*mstances whatsoever" under which he would rejoin the Conservatives.

Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds denies Labour is changing so much it's turning its back on unions.

He was speaking to Sky News this morning after it emerged last night that Unite, the country's biggest union and the Labour Party's biggest donor, did not endorse its manifesto due to concerns about fire and rehire and the banning of new oil and gas licences.

Mr Reynolds says it was "legitimate" for Unite to voice concerns over jobs linked to North Sea oil, but said Labour had a plan to get the transition right and make it economically beneficial.

"North Sea oil and gas production will be a part of the country's energy mix and energy future right up until 2050," he says.

Speaking to the "pro-worker" part of the manifesto, he says: "There'll be more secure work. Flexibility will not be one-sided.

"We will make sure not only that the economy is growing more strongly, but people feel the benefits of that."

Senior Tories can already be seen vying for the top job in the party during election campaigning, shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds tells Sky News.

He joined us this morning and said if it wasn't for the general election, he thinks Rishi Sunak would be facing a no confidence vote from his party.

"You can see there is a leadership election already under way in the Conservative Party," he says.

That was clear when Penny Mourdant came out swinging in last night's TV debate, when she was "absolutely unequivocal" in condemning the prime minister for leaving the D-Day ceremonies early, Mr Reynolds says.

We've been speaking to Transport Secretary Mark Harper this morning.

Unsurprisingly, he is pushed on the prime minister leaving D-Day events early on Thursday.

He repeats that it was right for Rishi Sunak to apologise for his premature departure from Normandy - and that it was a mistake for him to exit in such a fashion.

Asked if this is the moment the Conservatives have "definitely lost this election", Mr Harper says: "No - I don't agree with that."

Pushed on whether the Conservatives' manifesto launch - expected next week - will save the campaign, Mr Harper says he hopes the document will "help frame the choice for people that we've already set out".

Mr Harper was also asked about the Conservatives' policy announcement today - their pledge to reverse the expansion of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London.

He said the expansion was motivated by money and not air quality - adding that parts of outer London had voted against Mr Khan to register their opposition.

Mr Khan won a record third term as mayor in this year's race, beating the Conservatives' Susan Hall by a quarter of a million votes.

ByJennifer Scott, political reporter

The Conservatives have pledged to scrap the controversial expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London if they stay in power after the general election.

The party also promises local referendums on "aggressive" schemes like 20mph zones and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods.

The Tories said reversingthe policyof London mayor Sadiq Khan would form part of a new "backing drivers bill" that would stop the "war" their rivals had "launched" on motorists.

But Labour accuses their rivals of having an "abysmal record" on drivers.

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