The Unaffiliated | The storylines to watch as Colorado’s 2024 primary results are reported (2024)

It’s primary Election Day in Colorado in what we’re calling the year of the primary. There are important races being decided up and down the ballot, and Colorado’s political direction hangs in the balance.

Here’s some analysis from Jesse on what to watch for as results are posted tonight:

• Polling shows U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert is poised to cruise to victory in the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, with her five opponents splitting the anti-Boebert vote. Assuming she does win, her margin of victory will be the real story. If she only picks up 30%-39% of the vote, she may be vulnerable to a future GOP primary challenge. If she gets more than 40% of the vote, it will be a decisive win. If she breaks 50% in the crowded race — no polling we’ve seen or heard about indicates she will — she will effectively have a mandate.
• The 4th District special election, also being decided Tuesday, will serve as a barometer for voters’ future willingness to back a Democrat in the Republican stronghold in November. Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez is expected to beat Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former speechwriter and congressional aide. National groups ignored the race, a sign that its outcome was never in doubt. But if Calvarese gets within 10 points of Lopez, that could be a signal that the district, which includes Douglas County and Loveland and sweeps across the Eastern Plains, is more vulnerable in the fall than political observers may think.
• The two-way Republican primary in Colorado’s Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District in El Paso County has become a battle for the soul of the GOP. Some $2.5 million has been spent to try to defeat Colorado GOP Chairman Dave Williams in his race against conservative commentator activist Jeff Crank, but Williams’ name ID and party position can’t be written off. This will be a top contest to watch tonight as it could chart the direction of the Republican Party in Colorado.
• The six-way Republican primary in the 3rd Congressional District could decide if the GOP-leaning district that spans the Western Slope into Pueblo and southeastern Colorado will be in play for Democrats in November. National Democrats and Republicans agree that if former state Rep. Ron Hanks wins the primary, Democrat Adam Frisch may have a shot in November. If Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd is the GOP nominee, Frisch’s chances get much slimmer. Frisch and a Democratic super PAC have spent money on ads to tear down Hurd and help Hanks, while the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, has been running ads attacking Hanks. With a large field of mostly unknown candidates, a wild-card winner could emerge, too.
• Well over $3.5 million has been spent to influence voters in a group of Democratic legislative primaries that will determine how far left the legislature is when it returns in January. From the House District 6 Democratic primary in Denver between Rep. Elisabeth Epps and attorney Sean Camacho, to the Senate District 28 primary in Aurora between Rep. Mike Weissman and attorney Idris Keith, a lot is at stake.

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH

Here are a few other things to keep an eye on tonight:

• While the Democratic legislative primaries being decided today are more important in terms of the direction of policy at the Capitol, there are a few Republican state Senate and House primaries that will be worth watching, too. In particular, the Senate District 2 primary in Douglas County between state Rep. Lisa Frizell and Tim Arvidson, who works in the technology industry, as well as the House District 65 primary in northern Colorado between Weld County Councilman Trent Leisy and former teacher and school administrator Lori Garcia Sander. Those races will affect the tenor under the Gold Dome for years to come.
• The Democratic primary between former U.S. Attorney John Walsh and Colorado Office of Behavioral Health Director Leora Joseph in the Denver district attorney’s race will set the law enforcement direction for the city for the next four years. Meanwhile, don’t sleep on the 23rd Judicial District attorney Republican primary between former 18th Judicial District Attorney George Brauchler and criminal defense attorney Dagny Van Der Jagt.
• About $1 million has been spent in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District seat on the Colorado Board of Education —and with good reason. The contest may determine the future of charter schools in the state. The contest is between Marisol Rodriguez, an education consultant who focuses on charter schools, and former Boulder Valley School Board President Kathy Gebhardt. All but a fraction of the money has been spent to benefit Rodriguez, who charter school advocates believe will maintain the 5-4 majority on the state board that is willing to overturn local school districts when they deny charter school applications. Gebhardt told The Colorado Sun that charter school decisions should be made on the local level.

AXIOS DENVER: Early vote trends lower ahead of today’s election

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

• It’s primary Election Day in Colorado. You have until 7 p.m. to cast your vote, after which county clerks will begin posting results. It’s too late to mail your ballot back in. You must drop it off at a drop box in your county or cast your vote in person.
• The legislature’s Executive Committee of the Legislative Council meets at 9 a.m. Thursday at the Capitol to consider a range of topics.
• The Senate Committee on Ethics is scheduled to meet at 9 a.m. Monday as it continues its review of a complaint filed against Democratic state Sen. Faith Winter of Broomfield.

THE BIG STORY

How Dave Williams benefits from the Colorado GOP sending out mailers on his behalf

The Colorado GOP is promising that it won’t be “out any money” on the nearly $20,000 it spent benefiting Chairman Dave Williams’ congressional campaign — apparently on mailers — saying that future campaign finance reports will reflect that.

But even if Williams somehow reimburses the party — and there are questions about whether he can legally do that —he has still received a benefit not provided to all other Republican candidates.

That’s because the Colorado GOP, as a nonprofit, gets a discounted postage rate on the mail it sends out.

“It is significant,” Kristi Burton Brown, Williams’ predecessor at the state party, said of the discount.

The exact savings depends on the size and weight of the mail, as well as the number of pieces being sent out. But it can quickly add up to thousands of dollars.

Burton Brown said when she was party chair, there were candidates who asked the Colorado GOP to send out their mail pieces to cash in on the discount. Her practice was to say “no,” because it was her administration’s understanding that any mailers sent out by the party on behalf of a candidate had to — legally speaking — be 100% paid for by the party.

A few times in 2022, the party sent out mailers benefiting candidates for state Senate, but those were paid for in full by the party with no reimbursem*nts from the candidates themselves. Additionally, the party would count the spending against donation limits to the candidates.

The Colorado GOP in recent weeks has sent out at least three mailers to benefit Williams and attack his primary opponent, conservative commentator and activist Jeff Crank, in the 5th Congressional District. All three were sent with the nonprofit mail rate.

The Colorado GOP categorized the roughly $20,000 it spent in May to benefit Williams’ congressional campaign as an “itemized coordinated expenditure.” The Federal Election Commission’s website says that kind of spending is allowed — for party nominees, or people who win their party’s primary. Pre-nomination expenditures are allowed, but they must be made in connection with the general election.

Coordinated party spending is capped at $61,800 per U.S. House candidate in Colorado.

We checked with Crank’s campaign and it said the Colorado GOP did not offer it access to the state party’s discounted mail rate. The benefit also wasn’t offered to Republican Jeff Hurd’s campaign in the 3rd Congressional District.

SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT

Williams’ wife, Emily, posted on Facebook that The Colorado Sun was told that the chairman has sent funds to the Colorado GOP but that “because of the cutoff dates for reporting to the FEC, it won’t show the money he put into the party until the next report.”

That’s false.

Colorado GOP Treasurer Tom Bjorklund would only tell The Sun that “the party isn’t out any money and our balance sheets and subsequent disclosure filings will show a net positive for Colorado Republicans.” He didn’t mention any reimbursem*nt plan past or present — we specifically asked if there was one — and he refused to explain how his financial explanation could be true.

“Likely you wouldn’t understand anyway,” Bjorklund wrote.

You can see our exchange with Bjorklund over text message — with his number redacted — here.

STORY: Colorado GOP spent $20,000 supporting Chairman Dave Williams’ congressional campaign in May, report shows

ELECTION 2024

Adam Frisch’s new TV ad eliminates any doubt that he wants to face Ron Hanks in November

Democrat Adam Frisch is making the intentions of his spending in the six-way Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District crystal clear with a new TV ad in the race.

The former Aspen city councilman is now running a 15-second ad promoting former state Rep. Ron Hanks in the race by comparing him to U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, the district’s current congresswoman, and highlighting his support of a national law banning abortion.

Last week, Frisch waded into the GOP primary with an ad attacking Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd for “ducking Republican debates” and for refusing to say who he voted for in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, as well as for being the beneficiary of corporate super PAC money.

The Hanks ad eliminates any doubt that Frisch would rather face Hanks in November — and for good reason.

Hanks is an election denier who attended Donald Trump’s rally on Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington, D.C., that preceded the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol. He’s likely the candidate in the 3rd District Republican primary most comparable to Boebert, whom Frisch lost to in 2022 by just 546 votes.

Rocky Mountain Values PAC, a Democratic group, had spent about $500,000 through Monday on ads promoting Hanks and tearing down Hurd for the same reason Frisch is doing so.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, has added phone calls and texts to its attacks against Hanks in the primary race. National Republicans also see Hanks as vulnerable in November and would prefer Hurd as the party’s nominee.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

JARED POLIS

Gov. Jared Polis told conservative political consultant and commentator Tim Miller on Friday that his dream blunt rotation (here’s an explanation of what a blunt rotation is) would include Dolly Parton and Argentina’s President Javier Milei. The governor reiterated, however, that he’s never smoked cannabis. Miller interviewed Polis live before an audience on the Auraria Campus for The Bulwark Podcast. Listen here.

ELECTION 2024

The Republican State Leadership Committee announced it will spend $38 million on state legislative contests this year, while Planned Parenthood Votes said it will spend $40 million on the November election. What both have in common: Colorado isn’t on the list of states where they plan to spend. In 2022, RSLC donated nearly $1.3 million to state-level super PACs in Colorado. The national Planned Parenthood Action Fund is focused on congressional contests and has endorsed four Democrats in Colorado this year. But it’s focusing its monetary resources elsewhere thus far. Either group could decide to get involved in the state at a later date, but their decision to wait to wade into Colorado is yet another indication that it’s not in play in 2024.

READ MORE

• Group tied to Kent Thiry drops $1.1 million into Colorado legislative primaries in final days before election
• PERA’s investments bounce back in 2023, but the Colorado pension plan’s finances falter
• Supporters raise enough money to conduct first year of Colorado racial equity study
• Are new tariffs on solar good or bad for Colorado?
• Denver city workers can’t collectively bargain. That could change.
• Colorado’s unemployment rate inches upward to 3.8%
• U.S. Supreme Court will consider reinstating approval for rail line carrying crude oil through Colorado— The Associated Press
• Federal judge blocks Colorado’s new limits on certain short-term loans
  — The Denver Post 🔑
• Colorado renters can save money by getting their own background checks, but nobody seems to know how to do it
  — Colorado Public Radio
• New laws that go into effect in Colorado on July 1
  — 9News
• Jesse was on Colorado Inside Out on Friday
  — PBS12
• Colorado Supreme Court bars proposed ban on gender-affirming care for minors, clears way for primary election revamp
  — Colorado Politics 🔑

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

CHART OF THE WEEK

U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, raised the second most among congressional candidates between June 6 and Saturday from donors giving $1,000 or more, at $149,316, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

This close to the election, candidates are required by the FEC to report all contributions of $1,000 or more within 48 hours.

Caraveo, a Thornton Democrat, will face either Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans ($67,171 raised from big donors during that stretch) or former state Rep. Janak Joshi ($10,900 raised from big donors during that stretch) in the tossup 8th Congressional District in November.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• John Fetterman’s war
  — The New Yorker 🔑
• Clippers cut a wide swath making political campaign videos go viral
  — The New York Times 🔑
• Matt Gaetz hits the road to reshape the Republican Party
  — The Wall Street Journal 🔑
• Two years after Roe’s overturn, there are more abortions in America — but they’re harder to get
  — The 19th

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

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